The best case scenario as I see it...

Digg Stumble This Del.icio.us Twitthis Google Yahoo Reddit Technorati

thurgy, put down the charts and stop being silly.

Well, I was thinking it might take until October to reach 1000, but at the rate we are going it might be next week, lol. The market is extremely overbought in the short term and I would expect us to go into a trading range of 765 to 835 for a couple of weeks at least. The graph depicts a rough approximation of both price and time on how I think the BEST CASE scenario might unfold. I disagree with this Mark Mobius guy in that this is a start of a new bull market.

However, I will note that 875 and 950 will prove tough resistance. If the market fails to get above 875 before heading back down then I think that could be it for the rally. Any pullback break down below 750 would not be bullish and might suggest a faster drop to the new interim lows near 642'ish. Is it going to be the red, the blue or neither?

Clarification: The 3 year descent estimate in the graph is approximately Oct 2012 (derived from fib time extensions going back to 1990'ish, not to be expected to be anywhere close to being right). It is ironic, but not intentional, this end date is not far from a Super Tuesday. I'm not implying the market falls straight down for 3 years. It will just be a sideways/down grind with several big rallies. Estimated bottom is around 480-550 .