Financials and Real Estate leading the way, Tech  and Consumer discretionary, which is not shown above (not consumer goods) bring up 3rd and 4th.  Behind those we see a realtively flat transports, energy and materials...

Unless the right hand side of this map starts turning green, it should NOT last more than a day or two.   I don't see this getting over 812, just filling the gap before turning back down.

``Anyone want to bet there aren't some dirty games that go on in this bidding process that effectively puts the capital in the hands of the bank and moves the risk to the balance sheet of the taxpayer?  Just how many degrees of separation are their from private equity and these banks?  Who's to say they don't bid up their own assets indirectly?  It's a stealth way to capitalize the banks to the tune of $1T without having to go to CONgress asking for another round of "bailout" capital.  Sure there will be legit uses of this program but can you really trust these guys any longer?  Geithner is a toxic asset himself and needs to be put on someone else's balance sheet.''

A very good explanation of how this will work.  Click here if the video does not appear below.

23-Mar-09 Market Wrap - The Plan 

``Anyone want to bet there aren't some dirty games that go on in this bidding process that effectively puts the capital in the hands of the bank and moves the risk to the balance sheet of the taxpayer?  Just how many degrees of separation are their from private equity and these banks?  Who's to say they don't bid up their own assets indirectly?  It's a stealth way to capitalize the banks to the tune of $1T without having to go to CONgress asking for another round of "bailout" capital.  Sure there will be legit uses of this program but can you really trust these guys any longer?  Geithner is a toxic asset himself and needs to be put on someone else's balance sheet.''

Gaming the System

The huge subsidy to banks hidden inside of Tim Geithner's public-private partnership program may already be leading banks to load up on securities they plan to sell at inflated prices.

According to the New York Post, Citi and Bank of America have been aggressively buying up Alt-A and ARM mortgage backed securities, sometimes paying more than the going rate of around 30 cents on the dollar...

NY Post reports: One Wall Street trader told The Post that what's been most puzzling about the purchases is how aggressive both banks have been in their buying, sometimes paying higher prices than competing bidders are willing to pay.

Recently, securities rated AAA have changed hands for roughly 30 cents on the dollar, and most of the buyers have been hedge funds acting opportunistically on a bet that prices will rise over time. However, sources said Citi and BofA have trumped those bids...

Double Dipping: But the banks' purchase of so-called AAA-rated mortgage-backed securities, including some that use alt-A and option ARM as collateral, is raising eyebrows among even the most seasoned traders. Alt-A and option ARM loans have widely been seen as the next mortgage type to see increases in defaults.

Sources:

It Looks Like Citi And Bank Of America Are Already Gaming The System
DOUBLE-DIPPERS 

That Didn't Take Long (Gaming PPIP)

I have closed my long trades.  Doesn't seem to be much left to the upside right now, maybe another 10 points..  I would guesstimate we start higher in the morning with some late day selling that should persist for the entire next week.  Although, I did think that was going to happen this week too.  It's time to retrace to a minimum of 750 before, with the probable target of 736 before the next leg higher.  I will re-enter those trades then.

AAPL Last: 105 , down to 95-97 short-term, going to 120'ish intermediate term, 145 long-term.  AAPL loves that 145, but that'll be the top of it more than likely.

GOLD Last: 935 , up to 975 short-term... will pullback in the intermediate term to 850'ish

AUY Last: 9.40, up to 11  (Edit: 3/27 trade is off for now)

DB Last: 42,  just go down you P.O.S

HD Last: 23.10 , down to 20.50 short-term, pointed to 28 intermediate term.

SPX Last: 800 , down to 768

Edit (3/25 11:00pm ) Added more detail and price targets

The quote of the day comes from 'The Big Takeover'

The mistake most people make in looking at the financial crisis is thinking of it in terms of money, a habit that might lead you to look at the unfolding mess as a huge bonus-killing downer for the Wall Street class. But if you look at it in purely Machiavellian terms, what you see is a colossal power grab that threatens to turn the federal government into a kind of giant Enron — a huge, impenetrable black box filled with self-dealing insiders whose scheme is the securing of individual profits at the expense of an ocean of unwitting involuntary shareholders, previously known as taxpayers.

It's a fairly long article but worth the read.

thurgy, put down the charts and stop being silly.

Well, I was thinking it might take until October to reach 1000, but at the rate we are going it might be next week, lol. The market is extremely overbought in the short term and I would expect us to go into a trading range of 765 to 835 for a couple of weeks at least. The graph depicts a rough approximation of both price and time on how I think the BEST CASE scenario might unfold. I disagree with this Mark Mobius guy in that this is a start of a new bull market.

However, I will note that 875 and 950 will prove tough resistance. If the market fails to get above 875 before heading back down then I think that could be it for the rally. Any pullback break down below 750 would not be bullish and might suggest a faster drop to the new interim lows near 642'ish. Is it going to be the red, the blue or neither?

Clarification: The 3 year descent estimate in the graph is approximately Oct 2012 (derived from fib time extensions going back to 1990'ish, not to be expected to be anywhere close to being right). It is ironic, but not intentional, this end date is not far from a Super Tuesday. I'm not implying the market falls straight down for 3 years. It will just be a sideways/down grind with several big rallies. Estimated bottom is around 480-550 .

S&P closed at 823, only because they rang the closing bell.  It finished up eleventy percent on the Geithner Plan.  Short-term we are beaucoup overbought and we might need a down-tick rule to slow this mf'er down.  I would think the markets should drift lower for the rest of the week, consolidating the recent gains  towards the 765 area.  Overhead resistance is at 838 and 850.  Support is at 805 and 780.  

Now this is where it gets really confusing for me.  I'm unable to determine if we are currently in an A-B-C corrective wave up from the yet to be completed downward 3, that I felt would be at 642, or was 666 the completion of the downward 3 and we are in the midst of the huge upward 4 before heading back down?  These are the two scenarios I mull over when coming up with the projections.  Perhaps the market tinkers around till the next earnings cycle.  In order to move this market to new lows in the near term it's going to take some bombshell news/event, say like GM filing.  That's not so unexpected but could be a catalyst for selling.  I could also see this "Geithner Plan" getting derailed along the way.

Nothing about the 666 is something I wanted to see a bottom made of.  It was artificial and zero changed with the fundamentals.  I realize the market is speculating on a second half recovery which is why we must yield.  A variety of technicals that I track on the daily charts have reached highs matching that of 2007 which is why the market needs to work off these gains.  However, the weekly charts show there is room to move higher.  Some people suggest throwing the technicals away in this market but I beg to differ.  

 

The Plan

We finally got to see the plan for the non-recourse loans the Fed is handing out by way of the FDIC in order for private capital to pay a price closer to what the banks think they are worth.  The buyer only needs 7% of the money/risk for most of the upside, leaving us with the other 93%.  

Anyone want to bet there aren't some dirty games that go on in this bidding process that effectively puts the capital in the hands of the bank and moves the risk to the balance sheet of the taxpayer?  Just how many degrees of separation are their from private equity and these banks?  Who's to say they don't bid up their own assets indirectly?  It's a stealth way to capitalize the banks to the tune of $1T without having to go to CONgress asking for another round of "bailout" capital.  Sure there will be legit uses of this program but can you really trust these guys any longer?  Geithner is a toxic asset himself and needs to be put on someone else'sbalance sheet.   

Long CLF last week at 14.25 (how convenient of me, I know).  This guy is doing a trend reversal and is setup for a straight shot to fill the gap around 21.50 before some supply will come in.   Of course it would be best to wait for a pullback now.  This stock does have the potential to double over the next 6 months, providing commodities and the market in general aren't tanking.

I'll try and get some CLF charts up in the morning.  

*Positions to me are things that I may hold one to six months.  Should not be confused with day trades or swing trades...

Here are a few of the infinite projections for April.  Futures are up nearly 2.75% this morning on the "plan" as I type this.  Buy the rumor, sell the Geithner or will this stick?  I'm personally assigning the highest probability to the blue line if a rally is going to stick, but I would not rule out the red line at all.  After all, things still suck as bad as they did last week, and they will only suck worse 6 months down the road.  Enjoy the ride while it lasts.  

A consolidation range of 750 to 835 to digest the recent moves higher before we see which way it goes.

We have to work off the overbought conditions before a shot at moving higher.  

Just came across this article by Eliot Spitzer (HT Mish).  Speaks to the backdoor bailout I was ranting about in a previous post.

The Real AIG Scandal

Everybody is rushing to condemn AIG's bonuses, but this simple scandal is obscuring the real disgrace at the insurance giant: Why are AIG's counterparties getting paid back in full, to the tune of tens of billions of taxpayer dollars?

For the answer to this question, we need to go back to the very first decision to bail out AIG, made, we are told, by then-Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, then-New York Fed official Timothy Geithner, Goldman Sachs CEO Lloyd Blankfein, and Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke last fall. Post-Lehman's collapse, they feared a systemic failure could be triggered by AIG's inability to pay the counterparties to all the sophisticated instruments AIG had sold. And who were AIG's trading partners? No shock here: Goldman, Bank of America, Merrill Lynch, UBS, JPMorgan Chase, Morgan Stanley, Deutsche Bank, Barclays, and on it goes. So now we know for sure what we already surmised: The AIG bailout has been a way to hide an enormous second round of cash to the same group that had received TARP money already.

I'm trying really hard not to rant (as much) about political issues on this blog but I can't resist commenting on what I just heard the President say.  While referring to AIG bonuses he said he thinks people should get rich because of performance, productivity and their contribuition to society.  I agree with this wholeheartedly.  Unfortunately he does not share the same views when it comes to  wealth in general.  Hypocrite.

The second comment he made was Geithner not being involved when the original AIG bailout came.  More specifically he said Geithner did not write those contracts, which is true.  However, Geithner has been involved for over 18 months.  Liar.

Here are a few blasts from the past.

Late Change in Course Hobbled Rollout of Geithner's Bank Plan

Though Geithner had been in his job for only two weeks, he had been thinking about the problem of troubled assets since the credit crisis erupted 19 months earlier, first as president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and then, since November, as Barack Obama's pick to head the Treasury....

AIG Signs Definitive Agreement with Federal Reserve Bank of New York

American International Group, Inc. (AIG) today announced that it has signed a definitive agreement with the Federal Reserve Bank of New York for a two-year, $85 billion revolving credit facility. Interest will accrue at a rate based on 3-month LIBOR plus 8.50%...

Borrowings under the facility are conditioned on the Federal Reserve Bank of New York being reasonably satisfied with, among other things, AIG's corporate governance. The facility contains customary affirmative and negative covenants, including a requirement to maintain a minimum amount of liquidity and a requirement to use reasonable efforts to cause the composition of the Board of Directors of AIG to be satisfactory to the trust holding the Preferred Stock within 10 days after the establishment of the trust.

Emergency meeting resumes on Lehman Bros. rescue

An official from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York said participants include Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, Timothy Geithner, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and Securities and Exchange Commission Chairman Christopher Cox. The New York Fed official asked not to be named due to the sensitivity of the talks...

They were meeting on the heels of an emergency session convened Friday night by Geithner -- the Fed's point person on financial crises...

Geithner convened the meeting Friday evening, and told bankers gathered at the New York Fed's imposing building in downtown Manhattan to come up with a solution or risk being the next to go under, said investment banking officials with direct knowledge of the talks...

Participants in Saturday's meeting were also trying to tackle a broader agenda that includes problems at American International Group Inc. and Washington Mutual Inc., said the investment bank officials, who were briefed on the talks.

I would look for it to consolidate at the 43.50-45.00 area.  I would much rather get long energy stocks for the ride higher (once we give back this rally) than financials.  The financials might have the most upside because of how far they've fallen, but financials are more likely to reverse on a dime.  There is only one sector that can rally based on true fundamentals and lack of capacity, and that's energy.  Everything else has overcapacity and excess inventories.

I will look to add to my XLE position around 40.  First leg was at 38.

From IBD (boldface mine)

Housing starts shot up 22.2% from January's all-time low to an annualized 583,000 units, the Commerce Department said — thanks to a spike in new apartment and condo activity. Analysts expected another fall. Starts were still down 47.3% vs. a year ago...

The housing data, along with higher retail sales excluding autos in January-February, give optimists some hope that the recession, which began in December 2007, may be starting to ease...

Pessimists note that single-family starts — up just 1.1% — are essentially at record lows, consumer spending has been helped by one-time factors, and industrial activity shows no glimmer of recovery.

I'm not sure why a jump in housing starts is perceived as good news when home inventory is still rising.  You have to work off the inventory before housing starts become meaningful.  Apartment buildings were the key metric driving the increase in this data.  I believe there is one start per unit within the building which further skews the data.

This was a headline several weeks ago out of Bank of America.  Apparently the secret to success in business is to just charge higher fees.  Right.  The secret is the backroom gaming of the system in which Goldman is the house.  

It goes all the way back before AIG received its first "loan".  The weekend meeting between AIG, Treasury and Goldman Sachs.  It was known at the time Goldman had approximately $20B exposure to AIG.  We also know that Goldman received $10 billion in TARP funds, which it says it would like to return.  Goldman has also admitted to having a hedged position against the AIG exposure.  My guess?  They were shorting AIG common and every other instrument to cover a good portion of the exposure in case they were not made whole.  In the end they were made whole by the taxpayer giving Goldman $18b by way of AIG  I'm guessing Goldman also scored on the hedged side of this position as well.  No need to keep the TARP money now.

Actually, Goldman's ability to be profitable goes back before this.  They navigated the financial tsunami by short selling derivatives starting in 2007 around the same time Larry Blankfein sold an assload of his holdings.  So in a round about way Goldman continued to fuel the speculative  credit market by short selling securitized debt to anyone who would buy it, usually the people in the offices next to them.  Goldman knew the party was over then.  Savvy?  Yes.  Ethical?  No.  Fraudulent? Yes.  Now how much money did Goldman make with the $10B TARP funds that was probably levered up to 100M on short sales, perhaps even shorting other banks?!?!

All of the uproar over the $130M in AIG bonuses is a diversionary tactic away from the $160B in taxpayer "loans" that is being used to make other banks whole.  This is ANOTHER backdoor bailout of these banks and NOT AIG.  Some of these banks are not even in the United States.  You tell me how we are going to recoup these loans?

Hell, I think those guys deserve $130M in bonuses for this if nothing else.  This was a job well done; the greatest heist ever.  But then again, I would not be surprised in the least if this bonus story was planned.  I'm pretty sure none of them actually thought this would fly; contractually or not.

These guys are not clueless like they seem to be.  It takes genius to orchestrate fraud of biblical proportions.  Remember this one?

As head of the New York Fed, Geithner has served as the central bank’s top liaison with Wall Street. Geithner oversaw meetings at his bank to attempt to head off Lehman’s failure in September, later hosting gatherings on how to resolve AIG.

This corrective wave we are in now should end somewhere near 775 or 800, with an outside chance of 825'ish.  When financials, real estate and consumer discretionary are the leading sectors you should expect a turn soon.  [Edit]  However, a pullback to 735 followed by an attempt to rally is plausible but will likely end at 800.  Options expiration should keep this party going for the week.

My opinion is that we make a slightly lower low, around 642 (+/- 8), on the S&P 500.  This should happen on/around April fools day after most of the fish puke up their April calls and buy puts just in time for the 'rip your face off' rally.  Imho, the next rally is the one to ride.   This wave could last until the end of May or longer,  and take us as high as 1050, a 50% retracement of the bear market.

If I'm wrong then I'll misdirect your attention by referring to some other issue that I was right.

It only took a whiff of hope to get the market moving.  It would appear the bulls have the upper hand now that the banks are magically turning a profit and GM no longer needs money (right).  I would expect a pullback to resistance turned support around the 725-735 area.  Bullish price objectives are shown here.  Intermediate resistance is 775 and 800.  It is still too early to claim victory for the bulls but the bears are going up against the bulls and the interventionist now.  However, credit conditions have worsened somewhat even while equities have been partying the last few days.  Something to keep and eye on.

Everything inside the rectangle is a forward looking projection

It's been several weeks since I've last updated on Gold.  In the last update I said we should expect a pullback near the intersection of the two trendlines, which it has touched twice now in the last few days.  It was only a month ago we were looking for the 1k dash in this post.

I have drawn in possible projections that first takes gold up to the 930 level.  If gold does fail the 900 support level that puts the next target at 850, which is the intersection of the next two trend lines.  I'm curious to see if the date at the intersection of those lines (end of May) is accurate.

I should go on to say that this scenario is being presented IF gold loses 900.  It's resting on an important pivot point right now while the market is trying to find a bottom.  When it does Gold will continue to find selling pressure.  

By now I'm sure everyone has heard about the Citigroup internal memo that was leaked to the media which sparked a huge rally in the financials.  I'm also sure most are aware this was both intentional and misleading.  Pandit warned that market volatility in March could alter the results.  I can't wait to see what is being excluded in these financials.  

There were a few noteworthy things surrounding this memo.  First it issued forward looking statements and disclosed material information about their financial status without first filing an 8-K with the SEC (hat tip Yves).  Secondly it was an internal memo aimed at boosting investor confidence?  Lastly, this memo came after a weekend meeting between Citi, Federal Reserve, Treasury, FDIC and the Comptroller.  Nice.  Some poor retail investor is buying up shares of banks thinking the worst is behind us.  

On a different note, I got a chuckle when I heard the administration now saying the stimulus will create 1 million FEWER jobs than originally expected due to the deteriorating economy since the stimulus was crafted.  How could it be that things changed so drastically in a few short weeks?  This is nothing more than setting the stage for another stimulus package.  Those 1 million jobs never existed in the stimulus to begin with, and you know this.

I do not support this, but if I were the Plunge Protection Team I would jam the futures at 740.  This would guarantee a big rally in the financials.  That way they can raise capital in the "6 month window".  The Fed is just trying to find someone to take these losses and they will do whatever it takes to misrepresent.  Once the intervention wears off the bank stocks go right back to where they were.  Bernanke knows the economy isn't going to recover later this year and you can expect him to become more downbeat once he gets his foot in the door for the next round of bailouts.  

The market took out the 696 pivot setting off a massive rally from short covering, traders and the like.  The bad news is that it looks like the market is going to the 740-750 (previous lows) in just two or three days, which isn't as bullish as it seems.  This level is the line in the sand as far as technicians are concerned.  740 also happens to be the target the corrective wave 4UP before the 5th wave down comes.   Other people propose alternate wave counts taking this corrective wave up to as high as 1100, but I'm working off a different wave count which puts 740'ish as the possible stopping point.  Any break above there, not resulting from intervention, and I will reevaluate the wave counts.  It wasn't until after the next move down was I looking for the bigger rally.  However, it's not up to me :)

Yesterday I mentioned not to load up on the long side based on how it closed.  This is neither a bullish or bearish recommendation, but neutral.  Until 740-750 can be taken out with conviction we must stay on guard.

Thurgy also mentioned to wait for oil until a pullback to $45.  Yesterday we got that pullback but I have yet to take a stab because I'm going to wait until after everyone else sells the OPEC news which could bring it down to 43.50 perhaps.  

Thurgy still feels we do not find that tradable bottom until the QQQQ finds that double-bottom, or there abouts, at 24.75.  On the S&P 695'ish is a level sellers will be sitting at.  Everyone and their mother is getting long the Financials anticipating the suspension of Mark-to-Market accounting on Thursday.  Need I remind you what happens when everyone is buying on the rumor?

Thurgy also feels a better entry in oil would be after a pull back  to $45.  Gold has reached an inflection point but I feel 875 is in the cards after another headfake higher.  When the retail investors give up on Gold and Cramerica is flushed out then it's time to get back in.  Until then Thurgy is still short Silver at $14.

Edit: I'm not saying an oversold rally isn't coming, just warning that I wouldn't load up on the long side based on the outcome today.  I realize everyone is itching to get in on a ginormous rally but Bear markets are known to break both the bulls and the bears.  The fact that everyone is loaded up on Calls right now (according to Put/Call Ratio) only tells me it's not time yet.

'$1 of spending gets us $1.50 of stimulus'

That's what was planted shown on the airwaves before the latest stimulus package was approved.  But what is stimulus and what is debt?  One is a sugar high and the other stays with us.

What they aren't going to mention that it now takes $5.40 cents of debt to get $1 of GDP.  Now just imagine if large portions of stimulus are being spent in areas not likely to contribute to GDP...

On the topic of investigations.  Here is a police lineup.

..I'd also add Paulson and Geithner.  This should keep the busy for a while and uncover the rest of the dirty little sercrets.

This is what the Plunge Protection Team looks like in action.  Friday, when it looked like 666 might give way headed into a weekend, the PPT went to work.  In case you are wondering, the average lot size that normally trades on the /ES futures is about 20 contracts, not 900.  Look at the size of those trades.

Just got off the horn with Miss Cleo getting a tarot reading on the S&P.  She said we have not made the lows everyone is expecting and we should get some capitulation this week before a rally on options expiration week.  I purchased the 5 minute package for $430 to get her to read me the projections.  She also warned of grave dangers in Europe but would not go into any specifics unless I purchased more time.

Move over VIX, there's something leaner! I think it was the ONLY stock to make a new  52-week high yesterday. lol

Besides, the VIX is busted.  We've all become desensitized to a 45 vix.  I think everyone is looking for the 80 print when a year or so ago a 35 VIX was capitulation.

I'm not seriously suggesting to use this as an indicator.  I just found it humorous it was the lone 52-week high.

The Daily Show With Jon StewartM - Th 11p / 10c

CNBC Gives Financial Advice

Daily Show Full Episodes
Important Things With Demetri Martin

Political Humor
Joke of the Day

Link Here

Assuming the market gets to that 672 today and finds support, this does not validate my hunch on a tradable bottom call from 644-672 area. Remember, we need capitulation, not numbers on the SPY.  No one is jumping out of windows yet.  When you see things like XOM down 3% you know forced selling is among us.  The jobs number tomorrow could prove to be the 'cattle-lyst'.

This message was brought to you by the United Cattle Butcher's Association

Gloomberg (Update2) - Ron Smellyfinger, President of the United Cattle Butchers Union, announced in a statement Wednesday blaming the rapid decline in Live Cattle on the Chick-fil-A advertising campaign.  ``They aren't even open on Sundays'', says Smellyfinger, ``what kind of resteraunt is that?  At least we would continue to pay our workers for Sundays regardless if they are working.''.    Smellyfinger also criticized the government for the incentives that have been given to foreign chicken farmers, primarily to locate their chicken houses all  over Mississippi.  ``It seems strange that we give incentives to our competitors to come here and compete; but at the same time we're willing to walk away from an industry that is the backbone of Nebraska''.  Smellyfinger also hinted that Warren Buffett might have collected several billion dollars in premiums from puts he shorted on Cattle several years ago.  ``Cattle and Omaha are like peas and carrots and I guess he figured the value of cows could only go up'', said SmellyFinger.  ``They poop methane, surely that has to be worth a point or two?"  Calls to the Oracle of Omaha were not immediately returned.  

UPDATE: UCBA seeks access to TARP; Barney Frank considers a new bill to aid Butchers who are underwater in their homes.

I hope those dividends and preferred shares are working for them. The IYR, along with most of it's members, have taken out multi-year lows. These continued to show weakness yesterday even while the rest of the market was running. Target on SPG is $21 (See: S.horts P.retty G.ood). I imagine $25 will find some support though and these all have come down very far and fast so a whipsaw could happen at any time.

Related Posts:

The Good, the Bad and the Ugly

XLF and IYRSimon Says OopsSPGBarclays: REIT Sector upgraded to PositiveSimon Property Group (SPG)S.horts P.retty G.ood

[edit add labels]

...and here is the answer

Rally on weak volume and so-so breadth on the advance/decline line.  All energy, materials and transports.  Any indecision or absent a follow-through we will likely see a reversal back down.  You would have preferred to have seen some sort of rinse before this rally, which more than likely will return to new lows, perhaps 10-15% lower from today's close before I'm anticipating a tradeable bottom.  If we still do not have capitulation at those level then it'll just have to keep going lower until there is.

Edit: Besides, Doug Kass is calling another bottom.  The last one (pronounced on 12/22/08, Dow 8000) was supposed to have been at DOW 7350.  Also, Cramer is all fired up ready to BUY BUY BUY!

See Also: The Last Scam Standing

Citron Research issued a report on Apollo Group (APOL:$67.71,00$-4.40,00-6.10%) , accusing the company of using "unsavory business practices" to deceive the government and its own customers. Citron believes Apollo performs "trick phone calls and boiler room tactics" to get students enrolled. [Reference Link]:[http://www.citronresearch.com/index.php/2009/03/04/citron-exposes-apollos-big-dirty-secret-all-new-docs/]

1-minute chart

I don't know who Citron Research is, of even if it's true, but thanks!  It would be no surprise if it's true...all they want is the money from the student loans.

Recent Insider Trading Activity: Apollo Group Inc
Date	Name	Transaction	Num Shares	Price(s)	Value
01/22/09	SPERLING JOHN GLEN	Sold	250,000	$88.11	22.03 Mil
01/22/09	SPERLING PETER VANDERGRIFT	Sold	51,179	$89.37	4.57 Mil
01/16/09	DE CONCINI DINO JOSEPH	Sold	6,500	$87.23	566,995.00
01/16/09	DE CONCINI DINO JOSEPH	Exercise	6,500	$41.83	271,895.00
01/16/09	SPERLING JOHN GLEN	Sold	250,000	$88.34	22.08 Mil
01/16/09	SPERLING PETER VANDERGRIFT	Sold	250,000	$88.62	22.16 Mil
01/16/09	WRUBEL ROBERT WARREN	Sold	5,071	$87.00	441,193.22
01/16/09	WRUBEL ROBERT WARREN	Exercise	5,071	$53.35	270,537.84
01/15/09	D AMICO JOSEPH LAWRENCE	Sold	166,667	$87.32	14.55 Mil
01/15/09	D AMICO JOSEPH LAWRENCE	Exercise	166,667	$58.03	9.67 Mil
01/15/09	PEPICELLO WILLIAM JOHN	Sold	40,000	$87.36	3.49 Mil
01/15/09	PEPICELLO WILLIAM JOHN	Exercise	40,000	$51.33	2.05 Mil
01/13/09	REDMAN K SUE	Sold	8,860	$86.00	761,960.00
01/13/09	REDMAN K SUE	Exercise	8,000	$76.38	611,040.00
01/13/09	REIS JAMES RICHARD	Sold	2,500	$83.00	207,500.00

See: $APOL "Houston, we have a problem"

Edit: $65 is next major support.  $68 will act as resistance if it closes under there.

Related Posts:

$APOL

Position: Long term short near $30

Resistance: Clustered from $26 (major) to $27 andthen  $28

Support: $24.50 (major), $23.50, $22.50

Status: Recently broken down after failing several times to overtake major resistance at $30.  On the daily it has failed all three moving averages in rapid fashion, sending it into shor-term oversold.   On the weekly its just starting to roll over.  $26.20 is a major resistance line but if it's overtaken then I anticipate the confluence of moving averages near $27 will prove to be a stopping point.  Yesterday there was some interesting options activity in this stock as well as BBBY, another one of my long term shorts that I will update shortly.

Related Posts: 

A couple of short ideas 1 A couple of short ideas 2

Book talking / Darden Restaraunts

The market that is making Bulltards cry...

Close: 696

Support: 696, 674, 644

Resistance: 717,  740, 780

SP500 closed today right on the pivot point of 696.  Here we are fast approaching the 674 target as shown in "The Good, the Bad and the Ugly".  While I do not think this will be the bottom (obvious in note underneath the graph in link), I do think 644-674 could likely prove to be a tradeable bottom provding something/someone doesn't blow up in the next few weeks.  However, I would in no way count this as money in the bank because it sure seems forced selling is among us.  But at some point all the value investors, who are merely looking to get within 10% of what they think is a major bottom, will start dipping their toes in.

The  QQQQ (which I'm still short), needs to get back above 26.86 or else additional selling pressure will come.  Aapl seems to have put in some bearish plots today, so I'm keeping a close eye out there.  I have a feeling the Q's might double-bottom when the SPY reaches it's 644-674 targets.  Just a hunch and perhaps wishful thinking coming from a bear.

In  order for this to happen the following needs to happen:

1) Cramer to become bearish.

2) Capitulation by cramerica

3) Market stop falling

4) Clear 740 with follow-through.

 

Otherwise, sell strength if unable to break above 740.  Caution overplaying your hand on the short side right at this instance.  In the daily and weekly time frames we are oversold, and a move down to the target area few days would likely put us oversold in the hourly. These hat tricks usually make for a nice rally.  Also it's worth pointing out that the NYSE Cumlative TICK is as oversold as it was October when the market ran from 740 to 1000.  Another positive takeaway is momentum has continued to make higher lows on the daily timeframe when compared to Oct, Nov and today.  A massive rally from here would likely encounter 740, 850 and 960 for the "major resistance" levels.  Of course we don't want to get ahead of ourselves just yet considering the market is still falling ;-)

Any bad surprises handed to the market and all bets are off...This is still a bear market and it seems each day we are being greeted with a new piece of bad news.  Just one Euro blowup from a lock limit down.

Good Trading