Something is in the water. Look, I'm not going to say we're can't go higher in the market but the talk of a V-shaped recovery and being near the end of the recession is just absurd. I'm sure most of this nonsense is spawned from:
- Bear Markets average 18 months in duration
- Recessions average 11 months in duration
- Stocks are cheap, fundamentals, p/e, dividends, blah
How many of you can look 12 months down the road from now and see the fundamental picture of the economy improving? Sure we're going to have massive stimulus packages but in no way is this going to improve the fundamentals or have permanent, lasting effects (well, none that are positive, there will be lasting effects). We're not the first country to build bridges to nowhere . o O {Japan} But doing nothing isn't a good idea either. The death-spiral that would ensue would certainly gurantee the Mayans were right. I'll let you guys hold your breath over CONgress not botching another one.
Obama said ``the uemployment rate _could_ reach double digits and our deficit _could_ reach 1 trillion''. You can safely replace the world 'could' with 'will', irregardless of this stimulus. Any form of tax cut to the consumer will be saved. Leaving one class out of a tax cut/credit is the same thing as raising their tax. The net result is that you've brought down others to bring up noone.
Now I really wish I could find the bill/act that was put in place many years ago that effectively let companies/contractors to government sponsered spending rape the taxpayer with the amounts they are allowed to charge for the jobs. I seem to think at one point Ron Paul was trying to get this repealed for these reasons, but I could be wrong.
The market going higher isn't a reflection of the true state of the economy, but the speculation on it's recovery. Just like in early 2008 when economy was supposed to recover in the second-half. Right...I'm sure there will be some upticks here and there, and a few false starts but we're going to be hard-pressed to pull out of this one anytime soon. Anyway, the higher we go, the better. I've not been net-short this market for some time and frankly I'm just trading the wave. I don't care which way it's going, just not sideways. But then there was that time between late Oct-Nov when Mr. Market was butchering bulls AND bears in the same day...yeah that wasn't too fun.
If by chance the market makes it all the way to 1200+ , and you are still holding your 201k, you might want to _consider_ abandoning ship...the hell with women and children first! ABANDON SHIP! If we pull out of a recession in the next several months then I'll hang up my spurs.
Edit: Sorry, the alternative energy money spent will have lasting positive effects. The other trillions will not.
