In the longer term perspective, when commodities turn then we can talk bottom. They will be the leader out of this bear market. Otherwise, any gyrations with the financials, consumer discretionary, etc are just noise. Let's not get all giddy if the CRB manages to overtake the 20/50 day in the short-term.
Notice the CRB index did manage to overtake both the 20 and 50 day moving averages briefly before falling back down. Also notice it ran into to the trendline in the original graph before meeting some selling pressure. Any break above the 50 day moving average at this point will likely set the run back to the 240 area. It goes without saying this will lead the market higher if this does happen. It seems the lows need to be tested first before we return to a large trading range on this and the S&P. Let's keep an eye on the RSI action near the 50 area and the MACD making a meaningful moving above zero.
Oil is the number one speculative barometer in the economy. Since the CRB is heavily weighted in Crude there is a lot of noise-to-signal in the index. For this reason Thurgy likes to keep a close eye on beef. Beef tends to be less speculative and an actual barometer to the health of the economy.
