Updated this chart at the close
Commented on these guys back in Jan
Be warned, it's not a matter of if, but when the Euro currency starts to devalue relative to the dollar. Let's just say they are right about where we were 1 year ago, headed down the same road. However, if the market goes higher then the Euro will likely follow it providing there isn't something immediately out of the Eurozone like Deutsche Bank being insolvent (which they are I think) having the equivalent of 80% of Germany's GDP in assets (which they did). Or perhaps Credit Suisse, RBS, UBS and too many to list start having headlines like Citigroup, BofA (which they are)
Shortly thereafter DB had an additional 40% haircut and the Euro goes from 1.38 to 1.24. Strangely, nearly the same scenario again. I've been patiently waiting to pounce again and I'm getting antsy. From the lows it has ran from 20 to 70 with the only material change in DB being the stock price (and the billions from AIG). Goldman reports their Supplimental Liquidity Program profit earnings on the 14th, which will affect all of these names. Tread carefully.
Funny story on how I came interested in this POS. Back in late '07 you mostly heard the names like 'Countrywide' and 'Citigroup', etc... in the media as far as who had a lot of exposure to bad real estate. At the time I was checking the weekly legal Notices for auction sales (zero bargains, WRIT amounts were higher than market value). I noticed that every 4th auction had "Deutsche Bank, U.S." as the mortgage holder (every other was Countrywide). The stock averaged 600k shares per day at the time and I found it strange that after seeing this bank was levered to the tune of 80% of Germany's GDP (search the way back machine for a Riholtz bloomberg tier1,2,3 screenshot) no one was talking about it on BullVision as the focus was on US banks.
Disclosure: No position yet. Waiting just a wee bit more to see if it's got 65 in it. It's still "technically bullish". Market going to 900 will bring these up likely. It possible the upper trendline contains it but I have a hunch it might break through which is why I'm gonna observe a while longer. Failing to clear that line with financial sector weakness would provide clue #2 of 3 for the broad market. Eventually DB will bleed more than a ShamWow can soak up. You got that camera guy? No charts needed, just a few working neurons ( I only have three).
I got my eye on you Focker.
