Gold/Oil and My Surprises for 2009++

Gold/Oil

On several occasions I've babbled about Gold during deflation, mostly in the context of Gold vs Oil. While I've often referred to some long-term ratio averages between Gold and Oil, however one probably shouldn't own/trade Gold for that reason alone. Gold is a tricky beast to trade, especially un-hedged. There are economic inputs, seasonal inputs, currency inputs and geopolitical inputs that go into price. Then there are the random periods to where people flee to Gold simply because no one knows WTF is going on and the next week everyone exits stage left because of some unobserved input. These are the reasons I've been reluctant to go as far as setting price objectives either up or down for the metal itself and this is why I prefer to hold onto the Long Gold / Short Crude position for the foreseeable future. I can easily adjust the tilt by trading around this core holding, usually with the gold miners and the energy stocks or FX. For example, I'm uncomfortably exposed to the long side of energy as of last week, tilting the balance of the position for the time being (few weeks perhaps) to long energy stocks. If the free fall in oil resumes then I'll quickly cut these and run. Anyway, enough of this nonsense, let's get on to the surprises for 2009!

Analyst Surprises for 2009

Here is the summary of what I've read from the analysts.

1. The Market goes up.
   
2. The Market goes down.
   

Thurgy's Surprises for 2009

1. The Market goes up and down (top that analysts!)
2. S&P reaches 1170 before turning back down.
3. Gold reaches $1300 as the dollar declines and geopolitical tensions increase.
4. Oil reaches $60+ as the dollar declines, geopolitical tensions increase, and the false hope of a recovery in 2009.
5. Barney Frank solves a crisis.
6. CNBC declares a bottom, "Power Breakfast" replaces Squawk Box.

Then afterwards (mid-late 2009, early 2010)

1. Dollar reverses, rest of world in deeper crap. Trichet gets hit over head with shovel, joins back in race to zero interest.
2. Gold falls 50% from peak (sometimes in 2010).
3. Russia Defaults, Putin nationalizes Smirnoff Vodka, gets shitfaced.
4. Barney Frank solves a crisis.
5. CNBC declares a bottom, "Power Dinner" replaces Mad Money.

Then in 2011

1. S&P reaches 600 (575), will it ever stop?
2. A run on the mattress stores ensues, Sealy Posturepedic becomes largest company by market cap in the S&P 500.
3. Barney Frank solves a crisis.
4. CNBC declares a bottom, changes name of network to Power Channel.
5. Cramer actually does "Stop Trading".