[update after close] The market closed at 1115, I just wanted to state the obvious again [end of update]
Greetings, Captain Obvious here. In the last S&P forecast nearly a month ago we were coming off a closing low of 1071 with a forecast of chop to persist through June. Here we are midway through June and just a couple percent higher since, but not without some impressive jack-knifing between then and now including the SPX/JNK recombination which led to nice 2-day shank. All in all, over the last month we're pretty much unch. There were several opportunities for tactical trading but otherwise just chop, or you might refer to it as Flüchtigkeit. Speaking of that, we've also seen zEuro found support right on the demarcation point between Reprieve and No Man's Land at 1.19 (1.1871) and is currently trading north of 1.23. Again, the same resistance levels previously listed for zEuro are in play as well as a possible bounce to the 1.30's which would no doubt be bullish for the markets.
For the S&P there has been no reason to update because the scenario with a possible H&S forming is still in play, except the right shoulder might not reach 1165, but instead between 1136 and 1145, and still resolves between 950-980 (depends on how you draw the lines) area if it were to play out. The bull case is that we held the trend line from '08 as well as the 38.2% fibo-fan. The '08 trend line is important to me because it's where I view the bottom of the trend be. I think as long as we are above that level we are ok, but not out of the woods. We've caused some serious technical (and psychological) damage to the market and as a result we've reached 3-year highs in bearish sentiment which often times should be treated as a contrary indicator (at least in the very short-term)...from extreme euphoria to major depression in just 2 months time. Apparently some of the withdrawal symptoms from Sugar High addiction creates violent mood swings in the market. Either that or all the daytraders ran out of disco biscuits and are gacked out on the sofa, leaving the market is disarray.
A move above the 1150 area will likely result in push to the 1200 area and possibly re-test the highs. The onus is on the bulls because there are clusters of resistance above the current level (1107/1117/1128/1136/1145) which will bring high levels of price friction. The market has rejected 1105/07 twice and it's imperative that the bulls be able to push through now (1104 as of this writing).
E-wavers are more than likely debating (with 5 or 10 alternate counts on each side) over whether or not we have completed the correction and back towards the Obama double of 666*2 (not impossible, please consult the Laszlo/Biggs Tandem in your nearest octobox)? Perhaps that was just an intermediate A and we are now in the B up before C down to 950? Or maybe that was a intermediate i of v of Primary wave 5 down to S&P negative pi. Then again, it could be a baby minuette, grand-supercycle, minor wave 5 of primary-major W double-zig-zag, sub-fractal (iii) which would land us near S&P 1999? Who will be right? Probably 1/3rd of them.
I'm personally wanting to see how things play out at 1136/45 because that's where the shenanigans will take place with the squeeze zone just above there. With only tactical trades here and there I remain non-committed to either direction. If anything the fundamentals have taken a change for the worse after having failed to crest above the dog-crap level for the last year. It's going to take additional policy measures to spur more artificial growth.
A move above the 1150 area will likely result in push to the 1200 area and possibly re-test the highs. The onus is on the bulls because there are clusters of resistance above the current level (1107/1117/1128/1136/1145) which will bring high levels of price friction. The market has rejected 1105/07 twice and it's imperative that the bulls be able to push through now (1104 as of this writing).
E-wavers are more than likely debating (with 5 or 10 alternate counts on each side) over whether or not we have completed the correction and back towards the Obama double of 666*2 (not impossible, please consult the Laszlo/Biggs Tandem in your nearest octobox)? Perhaps that was just an intermediate A and we are now in the B up before C down to 950? Or maybe that was a intermediate i of v of Primary wave 5 down to S&P negative pi. Then again, it could be a baby minuette, grand-supercycle, minor wave 5 of primary-major W double-zig-zag, sub-fractal (iii) which would land us near S&P 1999? Who will be right? Probably 1/3rd of them.
I'm personally wanting to see how things play out at 1136/45 because that's where the shenanigans will take place with the squeeze zone just above there. With only tactical trades here and there I remain non-committed to either direction. If anything the fundamentals have taken a change for the worse after having failed to crest above the dog-crap level for the last year. It's going to take additional policy measures to spur more artificial growth.
