This is from yesterday's closing. I'm just noting it took 14 calendar days the last time this indicator peaked before the market gave back ground. Coincidentally it has 14 days as of yesterday's close since it's peaked. The more it grinds sideways/higher, the more the indicators work off their overbought levels. At this very point in the market, given some of the strange trading conditions the past 4 weeks, it's hard to assign a high level confidence in it's predictability so take it with a grain of salt. Although next week the Fed needs to sell $185B in toilet paper, so a shank down should net Goldman enough profit to walk into the futures pit on any correction of 5%. Could it be the usual once per quarter Shank-For-Treasuries (tm) ? See: FOIA: Obama/Bernanke Video
Before you know it Ben Bubbles Bernake will announce a QEv2.0 just as soon as interest rates creep higher. Currencies are setting up for interesting moves. Does the reflation trade go from mini-size to full-throttle, launching the S&P up near 2,048 by month's end? Or does the euro break down to 1.30 flat and shank the market down 5%, sending people to gobble up the $185B in bonds?
Good luck whichever way you chose, brave soul. Unless you have some good inside info (ie: you're goldman) you probably should just bet on the basketball games; it's the same odds.
