Enjoyed the breakin' away from the market. I have put on some shorts in RL, LTM and PCU. Nothing too aggressive and will not look to overstay my welcome. I'll chart these later today.

This is a follow-up to this post.

Followup: Or go straight there in an OEX squeeze...lol

SRS Longs jackhammered by a pinup-boob-bustin-bimbo on CNBC talking CRE time bombs. Stocktwits will be flying their flag at half-mast tomorrow in remembrance. I am eying IYR to see if it can hold over 40.50. I'll join the reindeer games if not.

Today the 2:00 futuresBandit cronjob kicked off without a hitch. Notice how effecient the market is on bth the bid and ask.

WOPR takes profit after closing... ES was worth 2.5 less than the cash index.

By way of Zero Hedge

The question is how does this bode for a planet effectively leveraged 10:1 ? I'm referring to the World GDP at $56T and total credit derivatives outstanding at $580T. What is a 10% loss rate on that? Things that make you go hmmmmm.

On 11-Aug we hear this out of Newman (date on link is the 18th, but it's an updated one):

“These stockpiles are in ‘weak hands’ as speculators have no real use for base metals,” Liu wrote. “When the market sentiment turns, they are very likely to turn into quick sellers, especially when the bank’s money is involved.” Metal prices, which have surged 66 percent this year, are looking “frothy” and increasing stockpiles are threatening the rally, Goldman Sachs JBWere Pty. said this month. Copper, aluminum and other metals shipments to China soared to a record this year as expanding loans and the government’s 4 trillion yuan ($585 billion) stimulus program boosted demand and prices. “Some of the stored metals are already flowing into the market as those investors think they’ve earned enough,” Deng Limin, a trader at Eramet SA, said by phone from Shanghai. Paris-based Eramet runs the world’s biggest ferronickel plant.

And 7 days later?

Shares of Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold advanced on Wednesday as a Goldman Sachs analyst added the stock to the firm's "Americas Conviction Buy List" predicting it will surge on an expected rise in demand for copper, which will drive up prices. The Phoenix-based mining company saw its shares gain $1.62, or 2.7 percent, to $62.10. Goldman Sachs analyst Sal Tharani said in an investor note Tuesday he expects a "rapid acceleration in copper demand" and a "supply-side hurdle" which will drive up copper prices to sustainable and high levels. He forecast strong demand, especially from emerging markets like China. Supply will likely be strained by challenges in the exploration and commissioning of new projects, he added. Tharani rates the stock a "Buy" with a 6-month price target of $90. That price target implies the stock will surge 48.8 percent over the next 6 months. He also raised the firm's base metals coverage view to "Attractive" from "Neutral."

Same ol' 3:10-3:15 futures closing action. It was good for 2.5 /ES points taking it nearly a full point above where the cash index settled. The action junkies pushed their chips all in at 3:14:59 and promptly received a margin call 5 minutes after futures opened back up for trading because WOPR went into sleep mode again. I really would like to see which institution is doing those trades and whether or not they are initiated by a human or a program. If it is a program then what is it seeing 7/10 days, starting at 3:10 after the cash closes? Moreover, how does transacting up to 3x more contracts than the rest of the computers/institutions help liquidity? I've seen it or recorded it all too many times now. Even saw several 1700+ sized orders at certain times throughout the day.

Anybody want to get their ass kicked in Sea Battle?

Let's call this the Bullshitish Scenario

I'm still sticking with this with a target of 1036-1058 [ 1, 2] , (Edit: Dow 10k is what I'm really looking for) maybe peaking in the first week in Sept. Perhaps down this week followed by another squeeze post expiration. This is just one way to get to 1036...Newman wants to give the sideline money a chance to scoop up 100 S&P points before they promptly take that by chain-selling everything. The bear case is not getting back above 1000-1006. From there I would assign 930 as the bearish price objective.

I'm only up to 40% of the total desired contracts of the SPY DEC 95 puts. Depending on how things ebb and flow I might sell to open the SEP 95's when it gets down there.

[update 18/Aug: With 879 maybe the bottom of that mini-leg nothing significant changes, just shifts those numbers higher a 9 points or so. 956 perhaps as the low in this scenario. Doesn't mean it has to follow it to get to the target]

This liquidity and price discovery had to be in the name of efficient markets, no? Poor Joe Sixpack never had a chance. All his stop losses were taken down in just a few cpu cycles. Note, about 3500 contracts sold at 1006 in the last 4 mins of futures (not shown). Trader X had a good day.

Note: Have/Had no position impacted from this, just pointing out the ridiculous power of program trading.

Back to back tards on bloomie. Come on mtmiller@bloomberg.net please get that tard Eric Marshall from Hodges Capital off the air. Good lord. How many bull markets start with a 143 P/E and no earnings driver in sight? "One of the longest recessions post WWII so we must be at the tail end". LMAO

Where is Mad Max Keiser?

Boggle you this:

With all the talk about CRE and small banks in the MSM the next thing you will hear is...

'Small businesses are the lifeblood of the economy. Small banks are unable to lend to these small businesses in order to make payroll or purchase inventory. Yes, we did go all-in on the big banks and somehow forgot about the other 300 smaller banks who actually serve society, but if we do not act boldly and swiftly with a TARP 2.0 the economy may slip back into a recession. No one could have seen the CRE problem coming. Oh, please support cap-and-trade and higher taxes. Oh and health care! We are all about small business when it comes to bailing out banks to serve this pent-up consumer demand.'

Just start a S.mall B.ank L.ending F.acility and give them a bunch of SPARCs.

-Boggler

Someone check the Whitehouse kitchen for Kryptonite. The stock market goes up 50% and Super O's approval rating takes a digger. Wait until America realizes what he and Frank are up to with FHA subprime.

Approval rating appears to be in a Primary Wave 3 down. Might retrace in P4 to 55 but then 40 becomes a target ;) Loading up on Approval Rating Puts.

And here is a chart courtesy of dshort.com:

Durden beat me to the punch. This as more of a "messed up, yet interesting" view. So I was goofing off recently and got a little carried away with a similar chart . The current area of interest is the green rectangle, more specifically the dotted lines around the wedges/slices/wtfever. I think this is what we will follow for now, still tracking the three upside targets also shown here. I reserve the right to change my mind in a few minutes. Ok, the chart is not very readable and it looks like I was just trying to be cute or give someone a Woodstock flashback... I'll admit to have gotten carried away but when I peel back the layers you'll see something different.

The above chart looks like a silly grid. I call it the Qbert chart. All of the trendlines are parallels. What I found most interesting is if you intersect the 45 degree lines with a negative 45 degree line you'll see how calculus,vectors and planes dominate the market. If you would like to take it one step further then bisect those lines with 22.5* lines and you'll see these pretty much are the ebb and flow of the market. From one plane to another. Maybe it's just me imagining the market is nothing more than stupid math performed by stupid computers? Hudson River Trading would agree with me. Btw, I loathe math. I suppose one could say this is sort of a multi-dimensional point and figure chart.

I drew way too many circles but some go from the top to the bottom, from the 50% retrace to the top and from the 50 to the bottom and for some strange reason I felt like drawing one from the 50 to the recent swing low (what I think is a "B" wave and we are in a 5-wave C that will mark the top in this correction).

The bottom layer is a couple of Fib Fans and a lot of horizontal lines. I didn't mark each location but those horizontals marked were where two of the Circles intersected. Wasn't surprised at all to see these land exactly on known support/resistance in the SLP500.

Just a brief update on everyone's "wanna-be short". Here's just one possible scenario that could play out in the IYR. Should it go higher? No. Will it? Ask Goldman.

I will note that for this to happen the market will need to be pulling back as well. I would imagine the SLP500 would be near 950-960 if this pulled back to the 33 area. I'm not looking below 950-960 on the SLP right now because it would appear higher prices are coming from that pivot.

Disclosure: No position in REITs...too much attention/herding (although most have been squeezed into a margin call now). If we get the initial move down to the 38 area and fails to get back above 40 then I might take a stab short for an expected move to 33. Otherwise I will fish in a different pond.

Turns out the FRNY gave the juniors a day off yesterday. Here is some video footage of them resting up for the big day.

Looks like they are back to the grindstone today, loading up on URE like mad. It must have been Goldman's pep talk over CRE? Tee-hee-hee. Wonder if there are any stocktwits left after SRS'ing into a margin call? The "Butt Indicator"

The indicator is applied to the daily tick.

I've never really applied this to TICK, therefore I'm not sure if it's reliable (but looks to be if the past is any indication). Unfortunately I don't have the cool Bloomberg terminal like Durden...might have to write a Thurgyberg look-alike and bring it to CNBC.

Anyway, found this interesting nonetheless. Maybe the kidlets will be back from the arcade tomorrow and start gobbling up all the momo's. The only thing I can deduce from this is that someone is taking in all the supply, or something. Prices are rising in the face of that declining green/purple line and in the past that has been with declining prices. None of the market makes sense right now. Could be a false positive, a Goldman Prophecy or a gamed tick.

[addendum 2:30) ] if it's not obvious from the chart, when that line bottoms out it led to a higher stock market if nothing more than on a short-term basis.

Watch out for a potential super lubed NFP tomorrow presented by the BLS Houdini. This is somewhat of a "prediction" for shits and giggles. I'm in no way trading for it. Before you acquire the "Gut indicator" you must first see the "Butt indicator". I just don't think they can afford to let off the pedal right now. Goldman upgrades GDP projections to 3%...is this the Heisman maneuver or will they try and run this to the Lazlo line at 1400, even if it means backstopping the world.

Things are shaky for sure...Could go either way though (just like everyday). The only reason I think this could happen is because everything says it shouldn't...

Random update

I'm no longer in this trade (out at 25, oops) but PCU is at target #2 and is looking a little toppy. Just a heads up.

Boggle me that

Run for the Hills: Fed Plans to Build on Sham Stress Tests as Basis for Regulation

Yves again, This is truly terrifying. They really think they did a good job on the stress test and want to use it as the template for future regulatory oversight! it was widely deemed to be a farce, but the markets bought it. So if it is good enough to fool the markets. that's all that matters, right?

Thurgy: I've been a fan of her blog for a couple years now. I'm pretty sure she's not posting from her mother's basement...Yves is digital but out of respect for the lady in the house I will refrain from the fully qualified name Dennis Kneale would prefer. Besides, she's still a fan of Nextstep which is cool.

Relaxation Therapy

Dude, so are you going to sell a few bars of that silver soon and pick me up in that sweet ride or what? I said "not it" for driving bro. (video link here)

Me Likey

Saw this at ZH recently. I'm starting to like this Mad Max guy. After seeing/listening to Moncef Cheikh ROUHOU I was expecting Tattoo to walk in yelling 'The Plane. The Plane!'

This is a follow-up to myself in 'Rhymes With Garbage'...I failed to present the 'bull case' and did not post the weekly chart. Because this stock has/had a huge short interest and is illiquid it is wise to buy upside protection if/when going short this name. I've been around LTM for about 18 months now and can rip your face off if you are not careful.

The above chart highlights a possible upside scenario that still lingers if/when it pulls back. I still have not taken a short position in this yet.

Boggle me this

Two posts on God-man's Sachs daily profit. Digital Dickweed #1 and Digital Dickweed #2*

The Boggler, 5/Aug/2009

[*] If you are unfamilar with the "Digital Dickweed" reference then see here , there and yonder.

In a post titled 'Money Management: The Key to Survival' Karl shows what happens if you chose to ignore the Golden Rule. Trading might not be easy, but the few principals you will learn about survival are. Unfortunately these rules contradict the 'get rich quick' mentality so many long (or short) for. I clicked through to see the original person's blog (emphasis mine)...

This will perhaps mark the top for the entire rally. I am now saved from a possible liquidation, and I hoping to recover. My game will no longer be their game, I will do whatever I was doing before: Short Term Trading.

Yesterday when I was speaking with Atilla, he said "lightening doesn't strike more than once at the same spot on the same day." In my case, from now on, it will no longer deal with large cyclones. I am a rider of small storms. With the help I received, I am back to short term trading.

I shorted 500 ES contracts at 1003.75 today. Possible target is around 935. This is more like a short term trade and the only opportunity I have to recover, as I expect this move to happen in days.

Irregardless of the outcome this guy appears to be on tilt. If I could short 500 contracts right here I wouldn't even do it expecting a 70 point drop in just a few days. Not even with someone else's money. This viewpoint is irrespective of where the market goes but rather the motivation behind his trade, not to mention he is assuming he is right when he put the trade on. It reminded me of a good article I had read back when it was published called "Trader Tilt" which illustrates a similar situation to this guy. Good [re]read for everyone.

[addendum(after -10/es)] But then again, I'm guessing he'll strike it rich and set a good example for everyone to follow. Watch 981 on the SLP500, probably right around the time NFP comes out later this week. Guaranteed those numbers will be "juiced". His target on the S&P is logical, I'm just disagreeing with his approach. I wish the best for this person.

#!/usr/bin/ocaml

# reitRaper -- momo quant analysis

# $Id: reitRaper,v 1.1 2009/03/08 04:19:33 kumar Exp $

# $Source: /home/gs/src/RCS/reitRaper,v $

let shares = ref 1000

let counter = ref 1 in

do_while (buyIYR (shares*counter) -> incr counter; Printf.printf "Stocktwits killed: %d\n" !counter)

(buyIYR (shares*counter) -> !counter mod 100 <> 0)

Just charts. I am making no insinuations. I was pretending to be Johnny 5 over the weekend looking at the DXY charts. I was mostly looking to see wtf the downside in Wampum could be (I left off most of the upside trendlines). For the most part I said, 'naaaahhh....' Not so sure anymore... Positive divergence in the daily charts which might make for a relief rally one day this year. Afterwards it remains unclear. If there was ever a time for "hope" it's for this not to materialize.

Edit: Weird, there are trendlines missing that were drawn on the daily or weekly that did not carry over when I switched the timeframe on the monthly. You can see some of those trendlines in the first graph but they are mysteriously missing from the 2nd or 3rd....silly tradestation.

I've been watching and waiting for the squeeze to complete. This stock is very illiquid and had a huge short interest...probably from the same sheeple following the citronresearch/stocklemon reports only to get squeezed out later. Same story with AMED except citronresearch failed to understand the basic A=L+OE-E+D accounting equation. Two times now Stocklemon/Citron has crashed my short party (LTM,APOL) when they showed up on the scene. I've learned to step aside if they come around. Even better is to wait and take the other side of the trade at the right time...

Once the melt-up completes keep an eye on this POS. I haven't been short of it for a minute (actually have/had a call spread mostly sold down now). I pretty much watch the same ol' tickers day in and day out. I made the mistake of running a scanner twice...That lasted all of one week after I got GMCR'd.

Horizontal lines drawn at the intersection of the trendlines...because that's how I roll. This is WOPR's view of the world. I have left off about eleventy-seven other trendlines for clarity. Sparc attack

Boggle me this:

Kass: Next Big Move Will Be Down

06/02/09 - 11:17 AM EDT

You write "Born to Kill" on your helmet and you wear a peace button. What's that supposed to be, some kind of sick joke?

The Reflation Trade

The Copper, Silver, HUI and Corn are all pretty much tracking those paths. Our fearless leaders are willing to sacrifice the USD for the sake of confidence and a higher stock market. Most all commodities (even Live Cattle, hehe) are signaling a move higher. Therefore I would only recommend long exposure to commodities (and the ancillary plays including Alternative Energy) until the DXY finds it's bottom. My long exposure consists of Corn, CLF ($30 tgt) and KWK ($14 tgt, was neutral but now a moderate bullish tilt in the spread). I am looking at ENER ($17.75 tgt,) as a potential 'AE' play but waiting to see if it holds 14.50. OIH is tracking 115, but I have no position in it directly. Short exposure is EWZ (now going to be a hedge, how convenient thurgy). Another reason to be exposed to commodities on the long side is in the event of an actual recovery this sector will lead. I would expect any stock market rallies are results of another dollar-smashing "plan" out of Washington. I think I would wait before taking any new positions at this point. I am looking for one more pullback and lunge for the finale. Doesn't mean it will happen though.

Let's see what happens when/if the market gets to 1017-1030 or so and Q's at 41. Watch oil to see if Goldman Prophets call for $85 will come true. Let's watch DXY at the 77.50 area. I don't see much below that until *76.50 and 75.

Trading is easy

...Banner Ads and Subscriptions.."What a jerk!" some might say. These are all rocks being thrown from what used to be my glass house. These were shots at the likes of RealMoney and the thousands of stock-picker-bloggers and stocktwits who's motivation is to generate traffic for banner ads, twitter followers, stock-picking-subscription services, recognition and ego. None of that interests me. For starters, 70% have no business doing it (including myself). Secondly, 70% will no longer be here this time next year. It's a sad but true statistical fact. I imagine over the next year the new trader odds will be even worse from the whipsaws we will see. Don't get me wrong, there are some good ones out there who deserve to do what they do and they know who they are. I would much rather learn from someone's mistakes and/or thought process than look at stock picks. The message I was trying to send is Humble thyself, otherwise Mr. Market will hand you a diploma from Pain State University. Now that I've cleared that up I will stop making those asshole wisecracks.

Digital Dickweed

(This is about the time I doubled-down on those FNM puts)

[Econobrowser May 2008] From page 102 of Fannie's 2007 Annual Report, as of the end of 2007, the enterprise had leveraged $44 B in stockholders' equity with $796 B in short- and long-term debt to acquire $761 B in mortgages either held outright or intended for resale or trading. I read that as an equity cushion against a 5.8% loss on the mortgages held directly (44/761 = 0.058). But in addition (page 1), Fannie has guaranteed $2.1 trillion in separate mortgage-backed securities it has sold to outside investors, for a ratio of core capital to total book of business of 1.6%.

Digital Dickweed Mug

[Update1] Been meaning to say this, but a "logical target" for a pump monkey would be the "Dow 10,000". That way the floor traders can pull out that hat again.

[Update2] Corny is about to limit up.

Here are some classic quotes and videos from across the land. Figured it was a good time to revisit a few.

Had Al Gore been born in 1800 Andrew Jackson would be considered nothing short of a "Digital Dickweed". Unfortunately he's just a dead wood now.

“Gentlemen, I have had men watching you for a long time, and I am convinced that you have used the funds of the bank to speculate in the breadstuffs of the country. When you won, you divided the profits amongst you, and when you lost, you charged it to the bank. You tell me that if I take the deposits from the bank and annul its charter, I shall ruin ten thousand families. That may be true, gentlemen, but that is your sin! Should I let you go on, you will ruin fifty thousand families, and that would be my sin! You are a den of vipers and thieves. I intend to rout you out, and by the eternal God, I will rout you out.”

ANDREW JACKSON, SPEAKING TO INTERNATIONAL BANKERS IN 1832.

Since ZH turned off the radio it's a Good time to listen to some blues again

Bird and Fortune back Feb-2008

Boggle me this

Which of the following would be considered a systemic risk:

1. The Federal Reserve
2. Treasury
3. SEC/CFTC
4. FDIC/OTS/OCC
5. Congress
6. CNBC / Dennis Kneale / Cramerica
7. All of the above

-The Boggler blathering in "Need more oversight" 2-Aug-2009